When do power shifts lead to war

Such power shifts are rare, however. Most large and rapid shifts result from endogenous military investments. When this decision is perfectly transparent, peace always prevails. Internalizing this, the state is deterred from investing. When investments may remain undetected, however, states may be tempted to introduce large and rapid shifts in military power as a fait accompli.

Knowing this, their adversaries may strike preventively even without unambiguous evidence about militarization. In fact, the more effective preventive wars are, the more likely they will be launched against states that are not militarizing. Our argument restricts the role of commitment problems and emphasizes the role of imperfect information as causes of war.

It also provides an account of why powerful states may attack weaker targets suspected of military investments even in the absence of conclusive information. We illustrate our theory through an account of the U.

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Keywords power shifts preventive war power transition theory long cycle theory credible commitment problem empirical international relations theory. You do not currently have access to this article Login Please login to access the full content.

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